The Long Au Revoir: France’s Fading Footprint in Africa

France's embassy in Bamako, Mali

For almost a decade, the French embassy located in Bamako, Mali stood as the epicenter of France’s counter-terrorism operations across the Sahel (the region of western and north-central Africa extending from Senegal eastward to Sudan). Now, its walls and guard towers are a remnant of a bygone era. Once the regional power in central and west Africa, France now finds its influence slipping as regional governments seek new partners and assert greater strategic autonomy. Since 2022 France’s steady withdrawal from the likes of Chad, Ivory Coast, and Senegal marks a shift in France’s geopolitical relevance. 

France’s engagement in the Sahel was highlighted by Operation Barkhane, which was active between 2014-2022 for the purpose of combating radical jihadist groups that threatened regional stability. At its peak, the operation deployed over 5,000 troops with support from American and European allies. Despite these efforts, armed groups such as Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara continued to grow in strength, expanding their reach beyond Mali into Niger and Burkina Faso. Barkhane’s failure to contain insurgencies contributed to mounting local distrust and dissatisfaction, exacerbated by Russian disinformation campaigns and accusations of French political interference.

Political upheavals which started with Mali’s coup in 2021 sparked movements across the continent that weakened Paris’ position. Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and now Chad have demanded the withdrawal of French soldiers following a refusal to support them. The new governments have since sought alternative security partnerships, particularly with Russian-backed Wagner Group mercenaries. Leaders in the Sahel have framed the French departure as the end of a neo-colonial era, asserting that their countries can now take full control of their security strategies. In December, the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger signaled a move towards regional self-reliance, with AES leaders accusing France and ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) of undermining their counterterrorism efforts.

Despite efforts to establish new security arrangements, stability remains shaky. The AES states have pursued an aggressive military approach, relying on Russian and Turkish support, yielding mixed results, and showing that brute force alone is not enough to deal with the terrorist threat. For example, while Malian forces, assisted by Wagner operatives, made territorial gains, such as reclaiming the Tuareg separatist stronghold of Kidal in 2023, widespread violence and insurgent activity persist. The shift away from French militarism has not translated into an immediate improvement in security conditions, raising concerns over whether these new alliances can deliver where France could not.

The region’s leaders are attempting to forge their own path, but whether their strategies will succeed in bringing stability or lead to further fragmentation remains an open question.

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